Hiya again.
Thanks to everyone who has replied 
I’ve been reading this thread over the last days and just letting all the ideas sit with me for a bit to see how I feel about them.
I think what I’m learning reading everyone’s thoughts is that I’m going to either need
a) some kind of complex sensor fusion
b) a compromise to my goals
In reality land the answer is all of the above.
Let’s start with b).
Compromises
I think my affordable, low solder, and elegant plan of triangulation was optimistic. Seems like it’s easy to detect “that” I’m looking at an IR emitter but not easy to gain metadata (like distance to) on that emitter.
I think that means It’s not realistic to expect information when pointing outside the bounds of the wall. i.e. If I can’t receive information from any emitter, my vector is undefined.
I think I have too many degrees of freedom so I’m going to have to decide on, measure, and lock in a distance.
With those compromises made I’d like to restate my problem.
Suppose a detector 1 meter
from a 1 by 2 meter
featureless blank rectangle (wall).
How can I find the x,y coordinates
of the point my detector is looking at on that wall.
Responding to your ideas.
@Jeff105671’s IR’s at different frequency with low FOV
I think this is clever but it’s not my favorite. Sounds a little finicky and I can’t really find a device that can detect IR at different wave lengths.
For example this one can detect IR but only at 940nm. This guy too but only at 950nm (and I’m not even sure that’s enough of a difference to be reliably distinguished.
@Jeff105671’s IR cylon IR emitters.
I feel this is super promising. I built what amounts to an led-follower in a recent project and I think I can use a lot of the same techniques here. Synchronization is the hiccup but ESP_NOW would work i bet. Never used ESP_NOW but having glanced at the website it doesn’t look scary.
Thinking it through I think I can avoid a wireless communication protocol entirely.
I don’t see why I can’t just use two clock sources of the same frequency that just occasionally sync. (a bit like RS-232).
For instance, suppose the 16 IRs in a 4x4 gird. In each cycle they each pulse in turn starting top left to bottom right. So like …
0 1 2 3
4 5 6 7
8 9 A B
C D E F
What I’m proposing is that at the beginning of each cycle I just flash ALL the IRs. With slow enough clocks I wonder whether that’s enough to keep two independent clocks together without a wireless protocol.
I suppose hardware matters here because my idea only works if my detector can distinguish 16 leds from 1 BIG led. This detector looks interesting but I don’t know what wave lengths it can detect, (or if it can tell the difference between them).
Testing required? Any critiques?
I made a compromise to fix my distance but that means a gyroscope would be a perfectly reasonable way to keep track of the vector I’m pointing. I think hobby gyros slip a little fast but if I fuse it with some IR technique I might be able to use less emitters because I can continuously re-calibrate with each successful IR reading.
Gear.
I’m struggling to find what I think I want in CE’s inventory et al. I guess I’m looking for Wii remote tech but in 2024. What does that look like? Is that Positioning IR Camera in 2024 the right thing?
What’s the best Gyroscope? I know you often find them in accelerometers but something that’s quality and dedicated to rotation sounds more like what I’m after. I don’t really want to muck around with xyz movement if … ya know… I’m not moving.
I guess this emitter will work fine.
Thanks everyone for work-shopping this with me. 